Adaptive ridge regression system for software cost estimating on multi-collinear datasets

Abstract

Cost estimation is one of the most critical activities in software life cycle. In past decades, a number of techniques have been proposed for cost estimation. Linear regression is yet the most frequently applied method in the literature. However, a number of studies point out that linear regression is prone to low prediction accuracy. The low prediction accuracy is due to a number of reasons such as non-linearity and non-normality. One less addressed reason is the multi-collinearities which may lead to unstable regression coefficients. On the other hand, it has been reported that multi-collinearity spreads widely across the software engineering datasets. To tackle this problem and improve regression's accuracy, we propose a holistic problem-solving approach (named adaptive ridge regression system) integrating data transformation, multi-collinearity diagnosis, ridge regression technique and multi-objective optimization. The proposed system is tested on two real world datasets with the comparisons with OLS regression, stepwise regression and other machine learning methods. The results indicate that adaptive ridge regression system can significantly improve the performance of regressions on multi-collinear datasets and produce more explainable results than machine learning methods.