Adaptive Online Monitoring of Voltage Stability Margin via Local Regression

Abstract

An online voltage stability margin (VSM) monitoring approach based on local regression and adaptive database is proposed. Considering the increasing variability and uncertainty of power system operation, this approach utilizes the locality of underlying pattern between VSM and reactive power reserve (RPR), and can adapt to the changing condition of system. LASSO is tailored to solve the local regression problem so as to mitigate the curse of dimensionality for large scale system. Along with the VSM prediction, its confidence interval is also estimated simultaneously in a simple but effective way, and utilized as an evidence to trigger the database updating. IEEE 30-bus system and a 60,000-bus large system are used to test and demonstrate the proposed approach. The results show that the proposed approach can be successfully employed in online voltage stability monitoring for real size systems, and the adaptivity of model and data endows the proposed approach with the advantage in the circumstances where large and unforeseen changes of system condition are inevitable.