Adaptive Modified Unbiased Minimum-Variance Estimation for Highly Maneuvering Target Tracking With Model Mismatch

Abstract

Due to the complexity, time variability, and mutability of the noncooperative maneuvering target, the dynamic tracking model of the target does not match with the actual state, which reduces the tracking accuracy or even completely tracking loss. In this article, an expectation maximization-based adaptive modified unbiased minimum-variance estimation (EM-AMUMVE) algorithm is proposed for highly maneuvering target tracking with model mismatch. First, the virtual maneuvering noise and the first-order Markov process model are integrated to quantitatively describe the maneuvering acceleration according to the boundness of the maneuvering acceleration. Then, the maneuvering acceleration and state estimation are derived based on the unbiased minimum-variance criterion, and the expectation maximization (EM) is introduced in the updating procedure of the quadratic Bayesian filter to adaptively estimate the mean and covariance of virtual maneuvering noise and thus to improve the accuracy of maneuvering acceleration estimation. Finally, the optimality of the adaptive modified maneuvering acceleration estimation is theoretically proved, and the tracking scenarios of time-varying maneuvering target with model mismatch and reentry gliding trajectory of typical hypersonic vehicle hypersonic technology vehicle 2 (HTV-2) are built to demonstrate the validness, convergence, sensitivity, and engineering practicability of the proposed algorithm.