Abstract
The popular simulation process that uses traditional cellular automata with a fixed time step to simulate forest fire spread may be limited in its ability to reflect the characteristics of actual fire development. This study combines cellular automata with an existing forest fire model to construct an improved forest fire spread model, which calculates a speed change rate index based on the meteorological factors that affect the spread of forest fires and the actual environment of the current location of the spread. The proposed model can adaptively adjust the time step of cellular automata through the speed change rate index, simulating forest fire spread more in line with the actual fire development trends while ensuring accuracy. When used to analyze a forest fire that occurred in Mianning County, Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province in 2020, our model exhibited simulation accuracy of 96.9%, and kappa coefficient of 0.6214. The simulated fire situation adapted well to the complex and dynamic fire environment, accurately depicting the detailed fire situation. The algorithm can be used to simulate and predict the spread of forest fires, ensuring the accuracy of spread simulation and helping decision makers formulate reasonable plans.
Highlights
Forest fires are characterized by destruction and a propensity to suddenly change, jeopardizing people’s safety and property [1]
This study addressed the problem whereby using a fixed time step, as in the traditional cellular automata (CA) algorithm may limit decision makers’ ability to make reasonable plans
An adaptive forest fire spreading simulation algorithm was proposed, that couples the revised Wang Zhengfei model with the CA model. This algorithm takes into account the influence of meteorological factors and the changeable forest fire environment, constructing a speed change rate index that adjusts the time step adaptively, so that spread simulation adapts to complex real-world environments, providing more details about forest fire spread when fire is intense, while ensuring simulation accuracy
Summary
Forest fires are characterized by destruction and a propensity to suddenly change, jeopardizing people’s safety and property [1]. Based on the time-corrected Wang Zhengfei model [19], this study proposes an adaptive CA forest fire spread algorithm that takes into account the heterogeneity of weather, terrain, and vegetation factors. Based on the revised Wang Zhengfei model [19], the speed change rate index is introduced to adjust the time step and produce an adaptive CA algorithm. This algorithm can be used to simulate forest fire spread, while characterizing the effects of the current environment on a forest fire, providing decision makers with details about the spread with guaranteed accuracy, as Figure 1 shows
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