Adaptive Expansion Planning Framework for MISO Transmission Planning Process

Abstract

Given the evolving energy landscape and uncertainties present in the expansion planning problem, modeling of uncertainties should be incorporated within the planning practices of independent system operators. In fact, the Mid-continent Independent System Operator (MISO) has characterized uncertainties (e.g. load growth, carbon emission reduction, renewable portfolio standards, investment costs) to construct future scenarios that are studied in the long-term planning process. Therefore, MISO takes a scenario-based approach to identify optimal resource investment portfolios. This provides the opportunity to implement an adaptive expansion planning (AEP) framework to MISO's scenario-based planning process. The AEP model is a stochastic-based expansion planning model that seeks to minimize the net present value of the investment and operation costs within the generation and transmission systems. The AEP model identifies core and adaptive investments designed to provide a flexible investment portfolio over the planning horizon for all planning scenarios under study. This paper presents optimal investment portfolios from the AEP model and discusses implications to how the AEP model can benefit the MISO planning process.