Abstract
Over recent years there have been rapid changes occurring across marine ecosystems worldwide, with high latitude systems seeing ecosystem shifts emerging at unprecedented rates. The Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea marine ecosystems have experienced substantial fluctuation in fish stocks, with some species experiencing considerable decreases while others thrive. Following the marine heatwave of 2014, sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) had a historically unparalleled juvenile recruitment class that is now dominating the stock composition. While this recruitment class bodes well for future fisheries, it is currently undermining the value of the fishery with limited incentives to retain the smaller and less valuable fish, compounding adverse effects on earnings in the fishery due to whale depredation that has been occurring for years. This study examines the well-being implications of fishermen’s adaptive strategies to these ecosystem conditions within the Alaska sablefish fishery using a socio-ecological system framework, operationalized as a qualitative network model (QNMs) and quantitative indicators. We examine the extent to which adaptation strategies, derived from a literature review and stakeholder interviews, are being utilized in the fishery with quantitative indicators. These strategies are then examined with QNMs that explore their impacts across the spectrum of well-being. By coupling quantitative indicators and QNMs, we were able to demonstrate how adaptive strategies can be examined to capture the multi-faceted well-being effects of fisheries participants’ adaptations to changing conditions. This study directly addresses several of the key guiding principles of the U.S. EBFM Road Map, including advancing our understanding of ecosystem processes, exploring trade-offs within an ecosystem, and maintaining resilient ecosystems, inclusive of community well-being. Thus this paper demonstrates how coupled socio-ecological models can elevate the inclusion of human adaptive behaviors, providing a framework for the development of policymaking that can mitigate adverse effects on both the participants and the resource by facilitating the mixture of adaptive strategies that maximizes desired well-being outcomes.
Highlights
High latitude marine ecosystems are experiencing unparalleled climatic change (Serreze and Francis, 2006) and in 2013, a record breaking marine heatwave began in the Northeast Pacific and continued through 2015 with substantial systemwide changes throughout the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) (Bond et al, 2015)
The continual capture of the less than desirable size class and the potential for illegal discarding has the capability to reduce the spawning potential of the large recruitment classes. This study examines these types of impacts from adaptive behaviors in the sablefish individual fishing quota (IFQ) fishery in response to both small sablefish abundance and whale depredation using quantitative indicators and qualitative network models (QNMs)
The extent to which adaptation strategies are being employed in the sablefish fishery is explored within section “Examining adaptive strategies with quantitative indicators.”
Summary
High latitude marine ecosystems are experiencing unparalleled climatic change (Serreze and Francis, 2006) and in 2013, a record breaking marine heatwave began in the Northeast Pacific and continued through 2015 with substantial systemwide changes throughout the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) (Bond et al, 2015). The continual capture of the less than desirable size class and the potential for illegal discarding has the capability to reduce the spawning potential of the large recruitment classes This study examines these types of impacts from adaptive behaviors in the sablefish IFQ fishery in response to both small sablefish abundance and whale depredation using quantitative indicators and qualitative network models (QNMs). That consolidation implies fewer opportunities for crew to participate in this fishery resulting potentially from both fewer participating vessels and from quota shareholders cooperating in the harvest of their quota; the latter of which implies that shareholders in turn act as crew on someone else’s vessel (NPFMC/NMFS, 2016) This well-being effect is captured with an indicator that examines the number of unique vessels and average crew size per fishing trip in the sablefish IFQ fleet. A predicted response was assumed to have high sign consistency and high sign determinacy when ≥ 70% of the responses were positive or negative, with those falling between 30 and 70% having an indeterminate sign response and considered equivocal (Melbourne-Thomas et al, 2012; Reum et al, 2015)
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