Abstract
In this paper, we study the use of wheat land fallow production systems as a climate change adaptation strategy. Using data from the U.S. Census of Agriculture, we find that fallow is an important adaption strategy for wheat farms in the U.S. Pacific Northwest region. In particular, we find that a warmer and wetter climate increases the share of fallow in total cropland and thus reduces cropland in production. Our simulations project that, on average by 2050, the share of fallow (1.5 million acres in 2012) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest region will increase by 1.3% (0.12 million acres) under a medium climate change scenario and by 1.8% (0.16 million acres) under a high climate change scenario.
Highlights
Wheat is the most widely grown cereal grain, occupying 16% of global arable land [1]
We investigate the extent to which fallow is an observed adaptation strategy to drier climates and the extent to which it might change under climate change
We find an additional significant positive effect related to precipitation variation, meaning more variation increases the use of fallow. This finding suggests that fallow is an adaptation strategy that can be used for managing precipitation variability
Summary
Wheat is the most widely grown cereal grain, occupying 16% of global arable land [1]. Adaptation strategies include alterations in planting dates, irrigation technologies, agricultural land use, crop mix and cropping systems, and the use of crop insurance [4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12]. Another possible adaptation strategy is the use of fallow, where land is left idle to accumulate moisture as a means of adapting to dry conditions [13,14,15]. Climate 2017, 5, 64 with fallow every third year appears, a fallow system is used with winter wheat grown every other year
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