ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS POSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE ON TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS

Abstract

With the occurrence of increasingly frequent and severe climate-related events, adapting to the impacts posed by climate change has been a pivotal research topic influencing transport operation, infrastructure, planning and policymaking in recent decades. As most studies on climate change still focus on its short-term impacts, there is insufficient research on how to systematically adapt to the impacts of climate change on transportation, in particular in an integrated inland transport system, e.g., roads and railways. Hence, an assessment of the long-term risks posed by climate change on transportation systems is urgently required. The primary purpose of this thesis is to explore the general picture of how the impacts of climate change can be adapted in the UK transport systems. A quantitative analysis mainly involves an innovative decision aiding tool: the Fuzzy Bayesian Reasoning (FBR) model. This hybrid model is capable of tackling the existing issues in risks assessment, such as unavailability or incompleteness of climate risk data, synthesis of inconsistent risk and costs expressions and challenges in estimation and selection of risk scenarios. The modelling is followed by a nationwide survey among the road and rail stakeholders in the UK, which not only further confirms the feasibility of the FBR model but also illustrates an overall view of current climate adaptation issues. Afterwards, a comparative study through interviewing five domain experts in the UK transport industry is undertaken, which covers four representative cases. It reveals both opportunities and under-reached issues in climate adaptation planning. This research re-emphasises the importance of raising the awareness of the community's consideration of the risks of climate change on transport systems and strives for effective risk analysis and adaptation planning to cope with them. The outcomes from this thesis including the critical literature review, advanced FBR model, empirical multi-mode case studies and comparative analyses, have provided transport stakeholders with a pioneer trail in systematically evaluating climate risks and adaptation strategies in the British transport systems. This work has great potential to be tailored for broader applications, offering workable recommendations and global references for climate adaptation on other transportation systems and regions.