Abstract
Adapting to Change
Highlights
Biologists typically use the climatic conditions in which species currently live to project the likelihood that those climates will be available following a period of climate change, and these almost always predict dramatically high rates of species extinctions and biodiversity loss in future climates
Polar bears (Ursus maritimus), for example, are projected to be at high extinction risk as a result of the global warming-induced loss of arctic sea ice on which they depend for hunting their prey
A recent theoretical framework suggests that the likelihood of a species adapting to changing climates to avoid extinction results from the interaction between phenotypic plasticity and micro-evolutionary change, as well as environmental and demographic variables
Summary
Biologists typically use the climatic conditions in which species currently live to project the likelihood that those climates will be available following a period of climate change, and these almost always predict dramatically high rates of species extinctions and biodiversity loss in future climates. A recent theoretical framework suggests that the likelihood of a species adapting to changing climates to avoid extinction results from the interaction between phenotypic plasticity and micro-evolutionary change, as well as environmental (rate of climate change) and demographic (life history) variables.
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