Abstract
The management adaptation potential of the Peribonka River water resource system (Quebec, Canada) is investigated in the context of the evolution of climate change. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impacts on hydropower, power plant efficiency, unproductive spills and reservoir reliability due to changes in the hydrological regimes. The climate change projections used here are from the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) nested by the Canadian-coupled global climate model (CGCM3) forced with the SRES A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario. The hydrological regimes were simulated with the distributed hydrological model Hydrotel. They were incorporated into a dynamic and stochastic optimization model in order to adapt the operating rules of the water resource system annually, according to the evolution of the climate. The impacts were analyzed over the years 1961–2099, split into four periods for comparison purposes: control period (1961–1990), horizon 2020 (2010–2039), horizon 2050 (2040–2069) and horizon 2080 (2070–2099). The main results indicate that annual mean hydropower would decrease by 1.8% for the period 2010–2039 and then increase by 9.3% and 18.3% during the periods 2040–2069 and 2070–2099, respectively. The trend to increase is statistically significant starting from 2061 (Mann–Kendall with p = 5%). The change in the mean annual production is statistically significant for the 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods (t-test with p = 5%). Also, the change in the variance is significant for the periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 (F-test). Annual mean unproductive spills would increase from 1961–2099, but the trend is not statistically significant. However, the changes in the variance of the annual mean spills are significant in the periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099. Overall, the reliability of a reservoir would decrease and the vulnerability increase as the climate changes.
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