Abstract
Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on economic outcomes requires knowledge of how economic agents might adapt to a changing climate. We exploit large variation in recent trends in temperature and precipitation to identify adaptation to climate change in US agriculture. We provide quantitative estimates of how much adaptation has occurred in response to recent warming, and use this information to generate new estimates of the potential impact of future climate change on agricultural outcomes. Adaptation among major US crops to recent warming appears limited, implying substantial losses under future climate change in the absence of countervailing investments.
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