Adaptation planning of community energy systems to climatic change over Canada

Abstract

Adaptation planning of energy systems to climatic change is highly complicated due to complex interactions among various adaptation responses, and among energy-related activities. These complexities may be further compounded as a result of the presence of interval-format uncertainty associated with energy systems management and climate change adaptation responses. This study is to develop an inexact community-scale energy system adaptation model (ICEAM) for supporting adaptation planning of community-scale energy systems under uncertainty. The objective entails the tasks including: (1) investigation of adaptation responses of the energy sector to climate change, (2) uncertainty analysis, and (3) development of ICEAM and apply it to the City of Waterloo, Canada. The results indicate that, to adapt to a changing climate by the City of Waterloo, more electricity and gasoline and less natural gas would be imported. The results also suggest that the ICEAM has an advantage of the planning adaptation response of energy activities, but also addressing the uncertainty existing in energy management systems and regional climate prediction.