Adaptation of Forest Management Regimes in Southern Sweden to Increased Risks Associated with Climate Change

Narayanan Subramanian,Urban Nilsson,Ulf Johansson,Ola Sallnäs,Johan Bergh

doi:10.3390/f7010008

Narayanan Subramanian, Urban Nilsson + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/f7010008

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Abstract

Even though the growth rates of most tree species in Sweden is expected to increase in the near future as a result of climate change, increased risks of damage by storms and various pests and pathogens, notably root rot and bark beetles, may also occur. Thus, forest management practices such as changes to thinning regimes, reductions in rotation lengths, and switching to other species (native or exotic) may represent adaptive management strategies to increase the resistance and resilience of Swedish forests to climate change. Clearly, thorough analyses examining the effects of anticipated climatic changes on damage levels, and the potentially relieving effects of possible management adaptations are needed before implementing such changes. In this study, damage caused by storms, root rot and bark beetles (single and in various combinations) under selected climate and management scenarios were simulated in Norway spruce (Pice abies L. Karst) stands. The results indicate that reductions in thinning intensity and rotation lengths could improve both volume production and profitability in southern Sweden. In addition, cultivation of rapidly growing species, such as hybrid larch (Larix × marschlinsii Coaz.) and hybrid aspen (Populus tremula L. × P. tremuloides Michx.), could be as profitable as Norway spruce cultivation, or even more profitable. However, slow-growing species, such as Silver birch (Betula pendula Roth), Downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) indicated low economic output in terms of Land Expectation Value.

Highlights

The forest industry in northern Europe is coniferous based and is of major economical and societal importance, since it provides jobs and income for forest owners and entrepreneurs as well as a whole range of forestry-related services
Soon after a thinning activity in Norway spruce stand, the stand stand well exposed to root rotspores fungaland spores and the could infection spread generation to second is wellisexposed to root rot fungal the infection alsocould spreadalso to second generation healthy stands through root contacts
Root rot and bark beetle resulted in reduction of LEV

Summary

Introduction

The forest industry in northern Europe is coniferous based and is of major economical and societal importance, since it provides jobs and income for forest owners and entrepreneurs as well as a whole range of forestry-related services. Norway spruce is currently grown outside its natural range in southern Sweden. These circumstances are not optimal from a risk perspective, especially in light of climate change, which brings elevated temperatures and a more uncertain weather pattern. Climate observations show a temperature increase of 0.8 ̋ C since 1900 [4] and the latest climate change scenario projections for Europe suggest that by year 2100 mean surface temperature will increase by 4.8 ̋ C in northern Europe [5]. Projected climate change implies a change in mean climate parameters, such as temperature or precipitation, and may result in changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, such as frosts and storms [6,7]

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