Adaptation of COSYMA and assessment of accident consequences for Daya Bay nuclear power plant in China

Abstract

The program package COSYMA for assessing the radiological and economic consequences of nuclear accidents, developed with the support of the European Commission, was applied to investigate the health effects and risks from accidental releases of radioactive material from the Daya Bay nuclear power plant. Population distribution data in the range of 80 km around the site and hourly meteorological data for the year 1985 representative of accident consequence analysis were used. The results showed that early effects are more important at distances closer to the site, while the number of fatal cancers is closely related to the population density and the late effects are still important at distances larger than 50 km from the site. The mean annual expected values for early mortality and late mortality estimated for the population within a circle of 80 km around the Daya Bay nuclear power plant are 4.5×10 −3 and 0.1 yr −1, respectively.