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Abstract
This research develops and applies a system dynamics (SD) model for the strategic evaluation of environmental adaptation options for coastal communities. The article defines and estimates asset-based measures for community vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity with respect to the environmental, economic, social, and cultural pillars of the coastal community under threat. The SD model simulates the annual multidimensional dynamic impacts of severe coastal storms and storm surges on the community pillars under alternative adaptation strategies. The calculation of the quantitative measures provides valuable information for decision makers for evaluating the alternative strategies. The adaptation strategies are designed model results illustrated for the specific context of the coastal community of Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, Canada. The dynamic trend of the measures and model sensitivity analyses for Charlottetown—facing increased frequency of severe storms, storm surges, and sea-level rise—provide impetus for enhanced community strategic planning for the changing coastal environment. This research is presented as part of the International Community-University Research Alliance C-Change project “Managing Adaptation to Environmental Change in Coastal Communities: Canada and the Caribbean” sponsored by the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the International Development Resource Centre.
Highlights
Increased frequency and disastrous severity of coastal storms—Typhoon Haiyan (November 2013), Superstorm Sandy (October 2012), Hurricane Katrina (August 2005)— rising sea levels threatening island states such as the Maldives and the South Pacific atolls, and widespread coastal erosion (IPCC 2013) provide considerable evidence of the global climatic changes currently underway
The results provide support for coastal community efforts to adapt strategically to the pending environmental changes
The method promotes the need for a longer-term, strategic planning perspective necessitated by the unidirectional trends of the changing coastal climate characterized by rising sea levels, and more frequent and severe storms and storm surges
Summary
Increased frequency and disastrous severity of coastal storms—Typhoon Haiyan (November 2013), Superstorm Sandy (October 2012), Hurricane Katrina (August 2005)— rising sea levels threatening island states such as the Maldives and the South Pacific atolls, and widespread coastal erosion (IPCC 2013) provide considerable evidence of the global climatic changes currently underway. 6) was designed to ‘‘complete the assessment and review of the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters (UNISDR 2007).’’ The Sendai Framework expresses the need for all communities to improve their understanding of vulnerability to severe environmental impacts, to strengthen disaster risk governance and management accountability, and to enhance resilience and recovery in the face of disastrous storm events. In the spirit of the Sendai Framework to foster disaster risk management and evidence-based decision making (Aitsi-Selmi et al 2016), and building on the multicriteria decision-making work of Mostofi Camare and Lane (2015), this article develops asset-based measures as objectives in a decision support tool for coastal community planning for the evaluation of strategic adaptation options, and to monitor the management of preparedness planning, response, and recovery with regard to environmental disasters. The results provide support for coastal community efforts to adapt strategically to the pending environmental changes
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