Adaptation costs for climate change-related cases of diarrhoeal disease, malnutrition, and malaria in 2030.

Kristie L Ebi

doi:10.1186/1744-8603-4-9

Abstract

BackgroundClimate change has begun to negatively affect human health, with larger burdens projected in the future as weather patterns continue to change. The climate change-related health consequences of diarrhoeal diseases, malnutrition, and malaria are projected to pose the largest risks to future populations. Limited work has been done to estimate the costs of adapting to these additional health burdens.MethodsThe costs of treating diarrhoeal diseases, malnutrition (stunting and wasting only), and malaria in 2030 were estimated under three climate scenarios using (1) the current numbers of cases; (2) the projected relative risks of these diseases in 2030; and (3) current treatment costs. The analysis assumed that the number of annual cases and costs of treatment would remain constant. There was limited consideration of socioeconomic development.ResultsUnder a scenario assuming emissions reductions resulting in stabilization at 750 ppm CO2 equivalent in 2210, the costs of treating diarrhoeal diseases, malnutrition, and malaria in 2030 were estimated to be $4 to 12 billion. This is almost as much as current total annual overseas development assistance for health.ConclusionThe investment needs in the health sector to address climate-sensitive health outcomes are large. Additional human and financial resources will be needed to prevent and control the projected increased burden of health outcomes due to climate change.

Highlights

Climate change has begun to negatively affect human health, with larger burdens projected in the future as weather patterns continue to change
Weather and climate are among the factors that determine the geographic range and incidence of several major causes of ill health, including undernutrition, which affects 17% of the world's population in developing countries [1]; diarrhoeal diseases and other conditions due to unsafe water and lack of basic sanitation, which cause 2 million deaths annually, mostly in young children [2]; and malaria, which causes more than a million childhood deaths annually [3]
The data sources used were (1) the current number of cases of diarrhoeal diseases, malnutrition, and malaria [http://www.who.int/healthinfo/bodestimates/en/ index.html; accessed 20 May 2007]; (2) the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study that projected the relative risks associated with climate change in 2030 for a range of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes [5]; and (3) published data on the costs of interventions for diarrhoeal diseases, malnutrition, and malaria, primarily from the project 'Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries' http:/ /www.dcp2.org

Summary

Introduction

Climate change has begun to negatively affect human health, with larger burdens projected in the future as weather patterns continue to change. The climate change-related health consequences of diarrhoeal diseases, malnutrition, and malaria are projected to pose the largest risks to future populations. Weather and climate are among the factors that determine the geographic range and incidence of several major causes of ill health, including undernutrition, which affects 17% of the world's population in developing countries [1]; diarrhoeal diseases and other conditions due to unsafe water and lack of basic sanitation, which cause 2 million deaths annually, mostly in young children [2]; and malaria, which causes more than a million childhood deaths annually [3]. The climate change-related health consequences of malnutrition, diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria are projected to pose large risks to future populations, in low-income countries in tropical and sub-tropical regions

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Discussion

Conclusion