Acute exposure and chronic retention of aluminum in three vaccine schedules and effects of genetic and environmental variation

Abstract

Like the mechanisms of action as adjuvants, the pharmacodynamics of injected forms of aluminum commonly used in vaccines are not well-characterized, particularly with respect to how differences in schedules impact accumulation and how factors such as genetics and environmental influences on detoxification influence clearance. Previous modeling efforts are based on very little empirical data, with the model by Priest based on whole-body clearance rates estimated from a study involving a single human subject. In this analysis, we explore the expected acute exposures and longer-term whole-body accumulation/clearance across three vaccination schedules: the current US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) schedule, the current CDC schedule using low aluminum or no aluminum vaccines, and Dr. Paul Thomas’ “Vaccine Friendly Plan” schedule. We then study the effects of an implicit assumption of the Priest model on whether clearance dynamics from successive doses are influenced by the current level of aluminum or modeled by the assumption that a new dose has its own whole-body dynamics “reset” on the day of injection. We model two additional factors: variation (deficiency) in aluminum detoxification, and a factor added to the Priest equation to model the potential impact of aluminum itself on cellular and whole-body detoxification. These explorations are compared to a previously estimated pediatric dose limit (PDL) of whole-body aluminum exposure and provide a new statistic: %alumTox, the (expected) percentage of days (or weeks) an infant is in aluminum toxicity, reflecting chronic toxicity. We show that among three schedules, the CDC schedule results in the highest %alumTox regardless of model assumptions, and the Vaccine Friendly Plan schedule, which avoids >1 ACV per office visit results in the lowest (expected) %alumTox. These results are conservative, as the MSL is derived from data used by FDA to estimate safety of aluminum in adult humans. These results demonstrate high potential utility of modeling variation in patient responses to aluminum. More empirical data from individuals who are suspected of being intolerant of aluminum from vaccines, evidenced by high aluminum retention, neurodevelopmental disorders and/or a myriad of chronic illnesses would help answer questions on whether the model predictions can be used to estimate parameter values tied to genetic factors including genomic sequence variation and family history of chronic illnesses tied to aluminum exposure.