Actual quantification of probabilities for selected bridge failure scenarios

Abstract

Considering risk analysis for civil structures, it is essential to determine the possible course of failure. There are numerous scenarios of different likelihood of occurrence. Several scenarios of the failure of bridge structures are proposed in the paper. Moreover a brief analysis of three failure scenarios for the stays of cable-stayed bridges is presented. The analysis applies to modern 21st century bridges built using state-of-the-art technologies. These are bridges with 60 ÷ 375 m long cable-stayed spans. As a result of the analysis, the probabilities of the occurrence of failure events were estimated. The considered scenarios should influence the layout of a structural monitoring system, if such system was proposed for the bridge.