Actual Causation by Probabilistic Active Paths

Abstract

Recently Halpern and Pearl and Hitchcock have presented influential accounts of actual (token) causation using Bayesian networks. These accounts have been deterministic. Here we present a probabilistic extension to these active path analyses of actual causation. The extension uses “soft” interventions to set distributions rather than just single values. The resulting account can handle at least as wide a range of examples as the original accounts, without assuming determinism.