Active European Warzone Impacts Raptor Migration

Abstract

Wildlife can act as an important indicator of environmental damage and flagship for environmental restoration efforts. Human conflicts can have impacts on wildlife, from direct mortality and environmental damage to the displacement of people, changing institutional dynamics and altered economies (Gaynor et al. 2016; Sutherland et al. 2020; Gallo-Cajiao et al. 2023). Extreme anthropogenic disturbances related to conflict may act as a barrier to migrating birds and increase the energetic costs of migration (Kikuchi et al. 2019). On the 24th February 2022 the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine, with targeted attacks on Kyiv and the eastern regions (UN Secretary-General 2022). By the 3rd March, when the first of 21 tagged Greater Spotted Eagles entered Ukraine on migration, the conflict had spread to most major cities, including parts of western Ukraine (UN Emergency Relief Coordinator 2022). Using GPS tracks and conflict data from ACLED (Clionadh et al. 2010; ACLED 2022) we quantify how behaviour of a long-distance migratory species was impacted during their migration through conflict areas in a quasi-experimental before-after control-impact design accounting for meteorological conditions. Migrating eagles were exposed to conflict events along their migration through Ukraine, and exhibited different behaviour to previous years, using less stopover sites and making large route deviations. This delayed their arrival to the breeding grounds and likely increased the energetic cost of migration with sub-lethal fitness effects. Our findings provide a rare window into how human conflicts affect animal behaviour and highlight the potential impacts of exposure to conflict events or other extreme anthropogenic disturbances on wildlife. This work has wider implications for assessing the impacts of armed conflicts on wildlife globally to better understand how conflicts affect the environment and implement future restoration efforts.