ACTIONS IMPOSED ON STRUCTURES DURING MAN‐MADE ACCIDENTS: PREDICTION VIA SIMULATION‐BASED UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION

Egidijus R Vaidogas

doi:10.3846/13923730.2005.9636354

Abstract

Prediction of mechanical, thermal, and chemical actions induced during man‐made accidents (accidental actions) is of crucial importance to assessing potential damage to structures exposed to these actions. A logical result of such a prediction may be expressed in the form of probabilistic models describing likelihood of occurrence and characteristics of accidental actions. For many types of accidental actions the models are to be selected under the conditions of incomplete knowledge about and/or scarce statistical information on intensities and likelihood of imposition of the actions. This paper proposes a simulation‐based procedure intended for a selection of the probabilistic models under these conditions. The proposed procedure is formulated in the context of the classical Bayesian approach to risk assessment. The main idea of it is that statistical samples necessary for fitting the probabilistic action models can be acquired from a stochastic simulation of accident sequences leading to an imposition of accidental actions. Formally, the stochastic simulation of accidents serves the purpose of propagating uncertainties related to the physical phenomena capable of inducing accidental actions. These uncertainties are quantified in line with the classical Bayesian approach. The simulation‐based procedure can be used for damage assessment and risk studies within the methodological framework provided by the above‐mentioned approach.

Highlights

It has long been known that man-made accidents occurring in industrial and transportation facilities include such adverse, high-energy physical phenomena as explosions, vehicular impacts on structures, internal and external fires
The prime objective of the present paper was to propose a computational procedure intended for a selection of mathematical models for actions induced during man-made accidents or, in brief, accidental actions (AAs)
A proper context for selecting action models is provided by the classical Bayesian approach to quantitative risk assessment (QRA)

Summary

Introduction

It has long been known that man-made accidents occurring in industrial and transportation facilities include such adverse, high-energy physical phenomena as explosions, vehicular impacts on structures, internal and external fires (eg, [1, 2]). Mechanical, thermal, and sometimes chemical actions (effects) induced by these phenomena can cause damage to property and threaten peoples lives. The most probable targets of these actions are structures and large objects of mechanical engineering which can be viewed as structures. In terms of structural engineering, an action induced during a manmade accident is called an accidental action (AA). A complete prevention of accidents capable of inducing AAs is not always possible or economically feasible. What is possible it is a limitation of potential damage which can be caused by AAs. Predicting characteristics of AAs is indispensable for assessing this damage

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Conclusion