Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action

Erin Coughlan De Perez,Ana Lopez,Elisabeth Stephens,Pablo Suarez,Florian Pappenberger,Brenden Jongma,Bart Van Den Hurk,Maarten K Van Aalst,Janot Mendler De Suarez,Irene Amuron,Alexandra Rueth,Deus Bamanya,Tristan Hauser,Jurjen Wagemaker,Simon Mason,Ervin Zsoter

doi:10.5194/hess-20-3549-2016

Abstract

Abstract. Too often, credible scientific early warning information of increased disaster risk does not result in humanitarian action. With financial resources tilted heavily towards response after a disaster, disaster managers have limited incentive and ability to process complex scientific data, including uncertainties. These incentives are beginning to change, with the advent of several new forecast-based financing systems that provide funding based on a forecast of an extreme event. Given the changing landscape, here we demonstrate a method to select and use appropriate forecasts for specific humanitarian disaster prevention actions, even in a data-scarce location. This action-based forecasting methodology takes into account the parameters of each action, such as action lifetime, when verifying a forecast. Forecasts are linked with action based on an understanding of (1) the magnitude of previous flooding events and (2) the willingness to act "in vain" for specific actions. This is applied in the context of the Uganda Red Cross Society forecast-based financing pilot project, with forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). Using this method, we define the "danger level" of flooding, and we select the probabilistic forecast triggers that are appropriate for specific actions. Results from this methodology can be applied globally across hazards and fed into a financing system that ensures that automatic, pre-funded early action will be triggered by forecasts.

Highlights

Taking preparedness actions in advance of a disaster can be both effective in saving lives and assets as well as efficient in reducing emergency response costs
To estimate the percentile of discharge that is associated with flooding in the project region, we plot the historical median water levels forecasted at a lead time of 0 by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) model
Examining the application of forecast-based financing in a data-scarce region of Uganda, we have proposed an action-based forecasting methodology to answer two critical questions to enable early action based on flood warnings

Summary

Introduction

Taking preparedness actions in advance of a disaster can be both effective in saving lives and assets as well as efficient in reducing emergency response costs. E. Coughlan de Perez et al.: Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action fieri et al, 2012; IFRC, 2009; Krzysztofowicz, 2001; Webster, 2013), in light of rising risks in a changing climate (e.g. IPCC, 2012). Coughlan de Perez et al.: Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action fieri et al, 2012; IFRC, 2009; Krzysztofowicz, 2001; Webster, 2013), in light of rising risks in a changing climate (e.g. IPCC, 2012) In this context, there is considerable demand for decision-relevant climate and weather information. The humanitarian and development sectors collaborate with forecasters on early warning for disaster risk reduction, for instance in the context of the Global Framework for Climate Services (Hewitt et al, 2012) and the regional Famine Early Warning System Network (Ross et al, 2009). The critical moments in between a forecast and a disaster represent an opportunity to bridge the traditional humanitarian and development spaces

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Discussion

Conclusion