Acknowledging uncertainty in evolutionary reconstructions of ecological niches.

Hannah L Owens,Vijay Barve,Marlon E Cobos,Abdallah M Samy,Peter A Hosner,Carlos J Muñoz‐R,Jacob C Cooper,Erin E Saupe,A Townsend Peterson,Narayani Barve,Vivian Ribeiro

doi:10.1002/ece3.6359

Abstract

Reconstructing ecological niche evolution can provide insight into the biogeography and diversification of evolving lineages. However, comparative phylogenetic methods may infer the history of ecological niche evolution inaccurately because (a) species' niches are often poorly characterized; and (b) phylogenetic comparative methods rely on niche summary statistics rather than full estimates of species' environmental tolerances. Here, we propose a new framework for coding ecological niches and reconstructing their evolution that explicitly acknowledges and incorporates the uncertainty introduced by incomplete niche characterization. Then, we modify existing ancestral state inference methods to leverage full estimates of environmental tolerances. We provide a worked empirical example of our method, investigating ecological niche evolution in the New World orioles (Aves: Passeriformes: Icterus spp.). Temperature and precipitation tolerances were generally broad and conserved among orioles, with niche reduction and specialization limited to a few terminal branches. Tools for performing these reconstructions are available in a new R package called nichevol.

Highlights

Comparative phylogenetic methods may infer the history of ecological niche evolution inaccurately because (a) species' niches are often poorly characterized; and (b) phylogenetic comparative methods rely on niche summary statistics rather than full estimates of species' environmental tolerances
We provide a worked empirical example of our method, investigating ecological niche evolution in the New World orioles (Aves: Passeriformes: Icterus spp.)
The environmental conditions under which species thrive evolve over time

Summary

| INTRODUCTION

The environmental conditions under which species thrive (i.e., their fundamental ecological niches defined in abiotic environmental dimensions) evolve over time. We demonstrate the utility of our approach with an empirical example, inferring patterns of ecological niche evolution in New World orioles (Icterus spp.; see, e.g., Figure 2) This empirical example highlights the utility of BAR reconstructions in terms of incorporating uncertainty explicitly and considering species' ecological niches as a ranged response instead of as a single value

| METHODS

| DISCUSSION

| CONCLUSIONS