Abstract
Adaptation Pathways have emerged as promising approaches for exploring sequences of actions to address challenges in uncertain conditions. This study elaborates on how pathway approaches operate in practice by applying a learning framework that identifies guiding propositions for successful adaptation pathways. The framework is used to analyze a transformative scenario planning case study from rural Mali. Findings confirm that adaptation pathways are highly context-specific, grounded in local institutions. The study also emphasizes that the adaptation pathways process requires a sufficient timeframe to allow for cross-level interactions and institutional changes to unfold as needed. The case demonstrates that the framework can be a useful tool for reflexive learning and identifying gaps in a structured way during pathway development. However, it needs to be adjusted to specific contexts to better capture the influence of and implications for power relations and social inequality in future adaptation plans.
Highlights
Climate change is one of the most critical challenges for agriculture and food security (Olsson et al, 2019), stemming from an interplay of stressors that affect interlinked social and natural systems
The Mali case study illustrates an iterative process of no-regrets option development strategy (Fig. 1), which started in June 2016 with the first scenario workshop
In the Mali case, local authorities were most concerned with food security
Summary
Climate change is one of the most critical challenges for agriculture and food security (Olsson et al, 2019), stemming from an interplay of stressors that affect interlinked social and natural systems. Research is seeking to develop configurations of possible adaptations centered on a multitude of flexible choices Such approaches are to be grounded in contextual specificities, embedded in institutional arrangements, and inclusive of temporal and scalar interactions (Kwakkel et al, 2016; Wise et al, 2014). The concept of "pathway" is not new, having been used in different fields, including natural resource management (Leach, 2008) and health (Leach et al, 2010a) It was adopted by climate re searchers to assist in climate adaptation planning, prioritizing, and implementing responses. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 5 invoked the pathway concept to contend that technical options for climate risk management must be linked to effective social and political processes for vulnerability reduction (Denton et al, 2014). Leach et al
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