Achieving Superior Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts by Improving the Assimilation of High-Resolution Satellite Data into Mesoscale Prediction Models

Abstract

Abstract : Forecasts of TC intensity change are often lacking in skill due in part to the paucity of conventional observations over the oceans that are assimilated into the operational models. The inability to accurately map the three-dimensional atmosphere and the underlying upper ocean has also constrained our understanding of how intensity fluctuations are governed by internal and environmental processes. Remotely-sensed observations from multiple satellite sources have become more routinely available as part of the atmospheric/oceanic observing system. As an important input to global numerical data assimilation and forecast systems, these data are providing crucial large-scale environmental information for better predicting such parameters as TC steering flow fields. However, in regards to TC intensity change, it is clear that a dedicated research effort is needed to optimize the satellite data processing strategies, assimilation, and applications within a higher resolution modeling framework. Contemporary strategies developed for assimilating satellite data into global NWP systems appear to be inadequate for retaining information on the scales of processes pertinent to TC analysis and intensity change. Our study attempts to focus on and evaluate the impact of integrated, full resolution, multi-variate satellite data on TC intensity forecasts using advanced data assimilation methods and coupled ocean-atmosphere mesoscale forecast models. The development of successful strategies to optimally assimilate satellite-derived data should ultimately lead to improved numerical forecasts of TC intensity.