Achieving specific accuracy in simulation output analysis

Abstract

This paper extends the use of the regenerative property of queueing systems in the analysis of simulation output. In particular, it describes a sequential estimation method which when used with the regenerative property allows results to be obtained with specified statistical accuracy. This method includes a test to check the normality assumption on which the sequential procedure relies. The paper illustrates the method using the empty and idle state as the regenerative state. A second example then describes how using the most frequently entered state as the regenerative state reduces the chance of making a costly error in a preliminary simulation run. The paper also described how a variance reduction method due to Page [9] can be used to obtain a specified accuracy with considerably fewer job completions than are required when no variance reduction technique is applied.