Abstract
Coastal cities in the Southeast and Gulf Coast of the United States are at an increased risk of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) due to the combined effects of urbanization, rapid economic development, and climate change. Current building codes and standards focus on minimum performance criteria for individual buildings exposed to severe hazard events to ensure occupant safety. However, they do not consider the resilience of buildings and building portfolios, which are key factors in determining whether a community can respond to and recover from a severe natural hazard event. Light-frame wood residential buildings dominate the residential market in the US, represent a significant percentage of the investment in the built environment, and are especially vulnerable to hurricane winds and storm surge in coastal areas. Our study of the impact of various hurricane and climate change scenarios on the performance of coastal residential communities reveals that decision-making at the community level is needed to develop rational engineering and urban planning policies, to mitigate the impact of hurricane wind and storm surge, and to adapt to climate change. The results suggest that fundamental changes in the current building regulatory process may be necessary.
Highlights
BackgroundOver 625 million of the global population lives in low-lying coastal regions that are less than 10 m above sea level (Neumann et al, 2015)
SKN2100-8.5 simulates the storm surge for the natural Hurricane Katrina track while considering the sea level rise under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 8.5 by the end of the 21st century, while the hurricane wind field is kept unchanged compared with SKN2005
Coastal communities in the Southeast and Gulf Coast of the United States are at increasing risk from tropical cyclones due to sea level rise brought upon by climate change
Summary
Over 625 million (nearly 10%) of the global population lives in low-lying coastal regions that are less than 10 m above sea level (Neumann et al, 2015). Inundation from even moderate sea level rise will have a destructive economic and social impact on coastal communities, especially on their vulnerable populations. Population and economic growth along the Gulf Coast of the US and in Southeast Florida have exceeded the national average in the past three decades Communities in these regions are vulnerable to tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and storm surge. In most areas of the US, 90% of single-family and low-density residential construction is light-frame wood construction (McKeever and Elling, 2015) Such construction is especially vulnerable to the impacts of tropical cyclones (Kijewski et al, 2018), as shown by its performance in recent major hurricanes1—Hurricane Andrew (1992), Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Ike (2008), Hurricane Matthew (2016), Hurricane Harvey (2017), Hurricane Irma (2017), and Hurricane Michael (2018), to name a few.
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