Achieving Paris climate goals calls for increasing ambition of the Kigali Amendment

Pallav Purohit,Nathan Borgford-Parnell,Lena Höglund-Isaksson,Zbigniew Klimont

doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01310-y

Abstract

Hydrofluorocarbon emissions have increased rapidly and are managed by the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. Yet the current ambition is not consistent with the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement goal. Here, we draw on the Montreal Protocol start-and-strengthen approach to show that accelerated phase-down under the Kigali Amendment could result in additional reductions of 72% in 2050, increasing chances of staying below 1.5 °C throughout this century.

Highlights

We assess that full global compliance with the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol will not provide emission reductions consistent with the 1.5oC target of the Paris Agreement
Following the Montreal Protocol’s start-and-strengthen approach to refrigerant management, fast-tracking hydrofluorocarbon phase-down under the Kigali Amendment would result in additional reductions vital for achieving the Paris climate goals
Even though HFCs are not ozonedepleting substances (ODSs), an international consensus was achieved that HFCs could be most effectively controlled through the phase-down of their production and consumption under the Montreal Protocol[5], complementary to mitigation under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Summary

Introduction

We assess that full global compliance with the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol will not provide emission reductions consistent with the 1.5oC target of the Paris Agreement. Following the Montreal Protocol’s start-and-strengthen approach to refrigerant management, fast-tracking hydrofluorocarbon phase-down under the Kigali Amendment would result in additional reductions vital for achieving the Paris climate goals.

Results

Conclusion