Abstract
Achieving grid parity of solar photovoltaic (PV) power in China has great implication for the future energy system transformation. In this work whether and when, and under what conditions the grid parity can be achieved are assessed, and especially the role of Tradable Green Certificate (TGC) policy in achieving the grid parity is explored. We first estimate the future levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of solar PV power using learning curve method, and then by comparing it with on-grid price of coal-fired power, the grid parity of solar PV power is determined. Specifically, using a panel dataset consisting of information of 541 solar PV power projects over the period of 2010–2016, the learning rate of PV power is estimated, based on which the future LCOEs are estimated. The results show that the LCOE of PV power decreases from 0.4631 CNY/kWh in 2018 to 0.3345 CNY/kWh in 2030 under the baseline scenario of the cumulative installed capacity, and the grid-parity of solar PV power may be achieved between 2023 and 2025. With the TGC policy being implemented, the grid parity can be achieved earlier. Specifically, with the TGCs price reaching 100 CNY, the grid parity can be achieved in 2020.
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