Abstract
This study relates agricultural income and agricultural carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the context of environmental Kuznets curves for South Africa. We posit likely relationships between UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 1, 2 and 13, relating food production to climate change action. CO2 emissions, income, coal energy consumption and electricity energy consumption time series data from 1990 to 2012 within the South African agricultural sector were used. The autoregressive distributive lag bounds-test and the error correction model were used to analyse the data. The results show long-run relationships. However, agricultural income was only significant in the linear and squared models. Changes in agricultural CO2 emissions from the short run towards the long run are estimated at 71.9%, 124.7% and 125.3% every year by the linear, squared and cubic models, respectively. Exponentially increasing agricultural income did not result in a decrease in agricultural CO2 emissions, which is at odds with the Kuznets hypothesis. The study concludes that it will be difficult for South Africa to simultaneously achieve SDGs 1, 2 and 13, especially given that agriculture is reliant upon livestock production, the largest CO2 emitter in the sector. The sector needs to shift to renewable energy consumption with fewer CO2 emissions.
Highlights
Climate change has become a topical issue, as witnessed by its inclusion in the United Nations’2030 Agenda Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which are a global plan of action for people, the planet and prosperity, seeking to eradicate poverty
[41] highlight that Kuznets curves have agricultural sector. Even though authors such as Kuznets curves been applied in economic transformation from primary production, to secondary and tertiary, with have been applied in economic transformation from primary to secondary and tertiary, an associated initial increase, followed by stabilisation andproduction, a decline in degradation of the with an associated initial increase, followed by stabilisation a decline in degradation the environment, the current study argues that such an approachand canthen be taken into the agricultural of sector
The results indicate a strong positive correlation between agricultural CO2 emissions and the value of agriculture, as well as electric energy use
Summary
Climate change has become a topical issue, as witnessed by its inclusion in the United Nations’2030 Agenda Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which are a global plan of action for people, the planet and prosperity, seeking to eradicate poverty. In achieving SDG 13 and reducing the impact of climate change, transformative policies and actions are required for the reduction of CO2 emissions. These transformative actions, come with their own downsides. These include trade-offs with productive capacities, especially for developing countries [1,6]. Agriculture is one of the primary sectors that is affected by climate change, with its impact being both spatial and temporal in scale [1]. The sector is both a perpetrator and a victim of climate change.
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