Abstract
Facing irreversible and catastrophic changes on the earth, China has committed to peak the net carbon emission by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The pledge requires significant mitigation immediately and sustainably. Considering this background, some perspectives are given in this article based on the comprehensive use of natural resources. First, utilizing the STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model and statistical data, net carbon emissions of provinces in China are anticipated, which lays a foundation for the further “three-step” carbon neutralization route. Second, a strategy of water–temperature–radiation–land coupling use is proposed, considering 1) the carbon emission cut, which relies on comparing the energy intensity and energy structure in China with those in developed countries; 2) the carbon sink increase, which depends on the evaluation of constraints of hydrometeorological factors on ecological productivity. Finally, the necessity and possibility of carbon trading and redistribution of the natural resources are discussed to ensure that China's national net carbon emission would be reduced to zero by 2060.
Highlights
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is continuously increasing worldwide, which has received wide attention from researchers, governments, and the whole society
2020 has witnessed a dip in carbon emission due to COVID-19, it has a negligible impact on long-term climate change (Le et al, 2020)
The increasing GHG concentration in the atmosphere has led and will continue to lead to irreversible climate change on a global scale, bringing more unprecedented survival crises for human beings. As it has been reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on 1.5°C (IPCC 2018), human activities have induced the increase in the global mean surface temperature (GMST) of 0.87°C during the decade 2006–2015 relative to 1985–1900, resulting in multiple negative impacts on the natural and human system
Summary
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is continuously increasing worldwide, which has received wide attention from researchers, governments, and the whole society. Based on the anticipation of the net carbon emission of provinces introduced in The Roadmap for Chinese Carbon Neutrality Considering Differences Between Provinces, the net carbon emissions of representative provinces in 2050 under the scenario of total green development (the S1 scenario) are provided in Supplementary Table S4, which quantifies the potential and the need of different provinces for the carbon trading in China If the artificial precipitation enhancements are performed at the places where the moisture converges and are followed by water resource regulation of surface water conservancy projects, the precipitation over the Chaidamu Basins can be increased by around 2.4 billion cubic meters per year during 2020–2060 (Meng and Wang 2019), which can largely boost the net ecological productivity there
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