Achievement of carbon peak goals in China's road transport—possibilities and pathways

Abstract

China's road transport sector is pursuing an early carbon peak and ensuing significant carbon reductions. By combining a comprehensive bottom-up model with Monte Carlo simulation, this study evaluates the achievement probabilities of carbon peak goals of China's road transport. The results indicate that without policy intervention, realizing carbon peaking before 2028 is likely to occur, whereas achieving a 20% of carbon reduction by 2035 is difficult, with a probability of approximately 15%. Delivering current policy targets is of no effect on bringing forward carbon peak time or expanding emission reductions, mainly due to the insufficiency of electrification rate targets. This study suggests increasing the electrification rate targets and employing real-world fuel efficiency values as the base for measuring policy compliance. Further actions are recommended, such as proposing a sales ban on high fuel consumption vehicles, imposing carbon taxes, and strengthening emphasis on the truck sector.