Achievable orbit determination and prediction accuracy using short-arc space-based observations of space debris

Abstract

The space-based space surveillance (SBSS) technique is promising in the current and future space surveillance with advantages of global coverage, high covering rate, and strong exploring capacity. This paper focuses on the key problems of this new technique, the accurate orbit determination (OD) and prediction (OP) using short-arc tracking data. 200 debris objects are simulated to be tracked by the satellite in a sun-synchronous orbit. The real-time OD using short-arc space-based optical data of debris from only one pass is performed, and an OP accuracy of 10″ for angles and 100 m for distances over 150 s OP arc is achieved, which is accurate for the pointing guidance of blind space-based lasers operation. The OD/OP performances using multiple passes of short-arc space-based optical data are also assessed. Using at least 2 passes of 120 s short-arc space-based optical data, separated by about 24 h, the determined position accuracy is better than 50 m, and the subsequent 7-day position prediction errors are less than 300 m, which is believed sufficient enough for space applications requiring high accuracy, like the orbit catalogue maintenance, space conjunction analysis for hundreds of thousands of debris.