Achievable load shifting potentials for the European residential sector from 2022–2050

Abstract

This paper develops quantitative predictions for residential electricity demand and the potential for load shifting for Europe at a fine spatial scale for years 2022–2050. To date only theoretical and spatially coarse measurements of this potential exist for a subset of technologies used in the residential sector. As the EU moves towards an ‘Energy Union’, it will be increasingly necessary to consider the whole integrated energy system across the EU and thereby databases with large spatial coverage are needed. To fill this need, we generate hourly load profiles for the residential sector for key electricity consuming devices that take into account the most recent empirical studies of usage patterns, and of the cost and willingness of households to participate in load shifting programs. Additionally, we extend the list of investigated technologies by the important classes of electric mobility and heat pumps for electric space heating. Predictions and insights provided in our article serve multiple use cases, i. they can be used in energy system models to assess the value of load shifting for the future energy system including system costs, ii. they enable infrastructure planners and grid operators to calibrate their expectations of the future role of load shifting in the electricity systems and iii. enable policy makers and to include load shifting in their considerations of future market designs.