Accurate model reduction of large hydropower systems with associated adaptive inflow

Abstract

Simulation of sizeable hydro-thermal power systems, such as Northern Europe or larger, requires several extensive simplifications and model reductions to decrease simulation time. Such reductions for hydrosystems are often called Equivalent models. Their purpose is to mimic a more detailed hydropower model while decreasing computation time. Both aspects are vital for accurate and useable simulation results. Here, different Equivalent models for hydropower have been developed together with a new function for adaptive Equivalent inflow based on local inflows to the detailed system. The models were computed via a bilevel optimization problem factoring in the novel adaptive inflow. Based on this, the new function for adaptive inflow was calculated using regression. The Equivalents have then been evaluated in a case study of hydropower systems in Northern Sweden regarding accuracy in hourly and total power generation, revenue estimation, and relative computation time. For all Equivalents, the computation time is decreased by ¿96%. Further, the Equivalents demonstrate improved performances in hourly and total power production and revenue estimations. The best hourly power difference was 9.2%, and the best revenue estimation was 5.9%. Especially notable is the low total power production difference of ¡0.5% compared to the more detailed model.