Accurate detection of dilated cardiomyopathy onset through machine learning predictions from ECG data

Abstract

Abstract Background Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a primary heart muscle disease characterised by left-ventricular dilatation and reduced contractility, often associated with arrhythmia and conduction disease. DCM often has a genetic component, putting family members of diagnosed patients at risk for the disease. Stratification tools to provide personalized screening advice are currently lacking. Artificial intelligence (AI) based analysis of the electrocardiogram (ECG) offers a potential solution to this challenge. Purpose Our study aims to develop and validate a novel AI-ECG model capable of prediction and early detection of DCM. Methods An AI-ECG model was developed on a United States (US) based secondary care centre dataset including 337,463 ECGs from 50,932 patients within 4 months of diagnostic echocardiography and 265,576 ECGs from 51,086 patients prior to the first diagnostic echo. The data was split 50/10/40% for training, validation, and testing, with each subset containing 9-12% DCM positive labels. The model architecture was based on a convolutional neural network with residual blocks with a modified final layer for a discrete-time survival model. The AI-ECG score was linked to changes in the median ECG within the test set to provide explainability. External validation was performed on 68,885 diagnostic ECGs (0.08% DCM positive) from the UK biobank (UKB) and a Chinese general hospital dataset with 317,854 diagnostic ECGs (2.2% DCM positive) and 76,936 predictive ECGs (1.7% DCM positive). We performed common and rare variant association studies for the AI ECG scores on quality-controlled UKB data. Results The AI-ECG score for predicted future DCM was associated with diverse ECG features (Fig. 1). In the US cohort test set, the model achieved high diagnostic accuracy with an AUC of 0.9 (95% CI 0.89-0.90) overall, and 0.89 (0.85-0.92) in a subset excluding ischemic or valvular heart disease. External datasets showed AUCs of 0.86 (0.81-0.91) in the UKB and 0.97 (96-0.97) in the Chinese dataset. The predictive performance of the AI-ECG score, adjusted for age and sex, closely approximated echocardiographic traits (LVEF and LVEDD, Fig. 2) with a concordance index (CI) of 0.79 (0.76-0.83) and 0.81 (0.77-0.85), respectively, at 10 years of follow up (FU). Combining AI-ECG scores with echocardiographic traits enhanced the CI to 0.84 (0.8-0.87). Similar findings were observed in the Chinese dataset, with a CI of 0.87 (0.85-0.89) for the AI-ECG score and 0.9 (0.88-0.92) for echocardiographic traits. Genetic analyses in UKB identified associations between the AI-ECG score and rare TTN variants as well as 25 common variant loci. Conclusion Our explainable AI ECG model for future DCM prediction demonstrates robust performance across datasets, providing comparable predictive accuracy to echocardiographic traits up to 10 years pre-diagnosis. Genetic associations support the model's validity and provide new tools for DCM genetic discovery.