Accuracy, uncertainty, and interpretability assessments of ANFIS models to predict dust concentration in semi-arid regions.

Abstract

Accurate prediction of the dust concentration (DC) is necessary to reduce its undesirable environmental effects in different geographical areas. Although the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is a powerful model for predicting dust events, no attempt has been made to investigate its uncertainty and interpretability. In this study, therefore, the uncertainty of the ANFIS model was quantified using uncertainty estimation based on local errors and clustering methods. Furthermore, we used a model-agnostic interpretation to make the ANFIS model interpretable. In addition, we used the bat optimization algorithm (BAT) to increase the prediction accuracy of the ANFIS model. Seven explanatory variables were chosen for predicting DC in the cold and warm months across semi-arid regions of Iran. The results showed that the ANFIS+BAT model increased the correlation coefficient by 10% and 16% for predicting DC in the cold and warm months, respectively, compared with the ANFIS model. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis indicated a lower prediction interval (i.e., lower uncertainty) for the ANFIS+BAT model compared with the ANFIS model for predicting DC in the cold and warm months. In addition, the model-agnostic interpretation tool findings indicated the highest contributions of air temperature and maximum wind speed for predicting DC in the cold and warm months, respectively. Prediction of DC using the proposed model will allow decision-makers to better plan for measures to mitigate the risks of wind erosion and air pollution.