Accuracy of ultrasound in the estimation of customised birth weight in a public hospital service.

Abstract

Studies have shown that ultrasound estimated foetal weight (EFW) in small for gestational age (SGA) babies tends to be less-accurate when compared to appropriate (AGA) and large (LGA) for gestational age babies. We aimed to analyse the accuracy of ultrasound EFW overall, and by customised birth weight centile category (severe SGA, SGA, AGA, LGA). Also, the accuracy of estimating the centile category using calculated customised EFW centiles. We performed a retrospective study of pregnant women between 20-43 weeks gestation who underwent ultrasound within 7 days of delivery at a large tertiary maternity unit between January 2018 and December 2020. Stillbirths, major foetal anomalies and multiple pregnancies were excluded. The EFW and birth weight were compared, and an accurate estimate defined as ≤15% difference. The customised EFW and birth weight centiles were calculated and used to analyse the accuracy of category prediction. Of 2061 foetuses included, 92% (n = 1902) were born weighing within 15% of their EFW. Accuracy was not affected by maternal BMI, ethnicity, parity or gestation. 87% of SGA babies were within 15% of their EFW. Ultrasound sensitivity for SGA was 51% (95% CI: 46-55%). The specificity and positive predictive values were 97% (95% CI: 96-98%) and 87% (95% CI: 82-90%) respectively. The accuracy of Ultrasound EFW overall is good, however, is reduced in SGA babies whose EFW and birth weight centile categories tended to be overestimated. The high specificity for SGA supports monitoring with a lowered threshold to intervene in pregnancies identified by ultrasound as SGA.