Accuracy of Single and Multi-Trait Genomic Prediction Models for Grain Yield in US Pacific Northwest Winter Wheat

Abstract

Incorporating secondary correlated traits collected from high-throughput phenotyping in genomic selection (GS) models for complex traits has been demonstrated to improve accuracy. The prediction ability of different single and multiple trait partial least square (PLS) regression models for grain yield were assessed for winter wheat lines evaluated in US Pacific Northwest environments. Different populations including a diversity panel, F5, and double haploid breeding lines were evaluated in Lind and Pullman, WA between 2015 and 2018 and were genotyped with genotyping by sequencing-derived SNP markers. Prediction ability was assessed under cross-validations and independent predictions. Multi-trait covariate models were advantageous in obtaining optimal predictions for yield, especially when there is less genetic relatedness between the training and test populations. Adding multiple traits in the model improved predictions for environments with low heritability. Cross-validations resulted in the highest prediction ability (0.16) whereas independent predictions using the diversity panel to predict F5 and double haploid winter wheat breeding lines obtained the lowest (0.002). Relatedness between populations, heritability of the secondary traits, and the type of PLS model used were among the principal factors affecting prediction ability. Our results showed the relevance of using multi-trait GS models to achieve increased predictions. Genetic architecture of the target trait and genetic relatedness between populations should be taken into consideration when choosing which type of models to implement in the breeding program. An increased prediction ability for the multi-trait models indicates the potential to attain improved genetic gains for yield in wheat breeding programs through these GS approaches.