Accuracy of satellite-derived estimates of flaring volume for offshore oil and gas operations in nine countries

Abstract

Flaring of natural gas contributes to climate change and wastes a potentially valuable energy resource. Various groups have estimated flaring volumes via remote sensing by nighttime detection of flares using multi-spectral imaging. However, only limited efforts have been made to independently assess the accuracy of these estimation methods. I analyze the accuracy of the VIIRS Nightfire published flare detection results, comparing yearly estimated flaring rates to reported flaring data from governments in 9 countries (Brazil, Canada, Denmark, Mexico, Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, USA, UK) and 7 years (2012–2018 inclusive). We analyze only flares occurring at offshore oil and gas production platforms and floating production units. A total of 1054 flare volume estimates were compared to volumes reported to government agencies. 80.8% of flare estimates lie within 0.5 orders of magnitude (OM) of reported volumes, which 93.7% fall within 1 OM of the reported volume. Little systematic bias is found except in the smallest size classes (<106 m3 y−1). Relative error ratios are larger for smaller flares. No significant trend was observed across years, and variation by country is in line with that expected by size distribution of flares by country. Wide aggregate estimates for groups of flares will exhibit little bias and dispersion, with the sum of 1000 flares having an expected interquartile range of −6% to +3% of actual reported volumes. Social media blurb: Test of remote sensing for flare detection shows accuracy across 9 countries and 8 years.