Accuracy of RUC-1 and RUC-2 Wind and Aircraft Trajectory Forecasts by Comparison with ACARS Observations

Abstract

Abstract As part of an investigation into terminal airspace productivity sponsored by the NASA Ames Research Center, a study was performed at the Forecast Systems Laboratory to investigate sources of wind forecast error and to assess differences in wind forecast accuracy between the 60-km Rapid Update Cycle, version 1 (RUC-1), and the newer 40-km RUC-2. Improved knowledge of these errors is important for development of air traffic management automation tools under development at NASA Ames and elsewhere. This information is also useful for operational users of RUC forecast winds. To perform this study, commercial aircraft reports of wind reported through Aircraft Communications, Addressing, and Reporting System (ACARS) were collected in a region over the western and central United States for a 13-month period, along with RUC-1 and RUC-2 wind forecasts. Differences between forecasts and ACARS observations and estimates of ACARS wind observation error itself were both calculated. It was found that rms vector...