Accuracy of metric sex analysis of skeletal remains using Fordisc® based on a recent skull collection

Abstract

It has been generally accepted in skeletal sex determination that the use of metric methods is limited due to the population dependence of the multivariate algorithms. The aim of the study was to verify the applicability of software-based sex estimations outside the reference population group for which discriminant equations have been developed. We examined 98 skulls from recent forensic cases of known age, sex, and Caucasian ancestry from cranium collections in Frankfurt and Mainz (Germany) to determine the accuracy of sex determination using the statistical software solution Fordisc which derives its database and functions from the US American Forensic Database. In a comparison between metric analysis using Fordisc and morphological determination of sex, average accuracy for both sexes was 86 vs 94%, respectively, and males were identified more accurately than females. The ratio of the true test result rate to the false test result rate was not statistically different for the two methodological approaches at a significance level of 0.05 but was statistically different at a level of 0.10 (p=0.06). Possible explanations for this difference comprise different ancestry, age distribution, and socio-economic status compared to the Fordisc reference sample. It is likely that a discriminant function analysis on the basis of more similar European reference samples will lead to more valid and reliable sexing results. The use of Fordisc as a single method for the estimation of sex of recent skeletal remains in Europe cannot be recommended without additional morphological assessment and without a built-in software update based on modern European reference samples.