Accuracy of Machine Learning in Discriminating Kawasaki Disease and Other Febrile Illnesses: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Abstract

Background Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute pediatric vasculitis that can lead to coronary artery aneurysms and severe cardiovascular complications, often presenting with obvious fever in the early stages. In current clinical practice, distinguishing KD from other febrile illnesses remains a significant challenge. In recent years, some researchers have explored the potential of machine learning (ML) methods for the differential diagnosis of KD versus other febrile illnesses, as well as for predicting coronary artery lesions (CALs) in people with KD. However, there is still a lack of systematic evidence to validate their effectiveness. Therefore, we have conducted the first systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the accuracy of ML in differentiating KD from other febrile illnesses and in predicting CALs in people with KD, so as to provide evidence-based support for the application of ML in the diagnosis and treatment of KD. Objective This study aimed to summarize the accuracy of ML in differentiating KD from other febrile illnesses and predicting CALs in people with KD. Methods PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase, and Web of Science were systematically searched until September 26, 2023. The risk of bias in the included original studies was appraised using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). Stata (version 15.0; StataCorp) was used for the statistical analysis. Results A total of 29 studies were incorporated. Of them, 20 used ML to differentiate KD from other febrile illnesses. These studies involved a total of 103,882 participants, including 12,541 people with KD. In the validation set, the pooled concordance index, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.898 (95% CI 0.874-0.922), 0.91 (95% CI 0.83-0.95), and 0.86 (95% CI 0.80-0.90), respectively. Meanwhile, 9 studies used ML for early prediction of the risk of CALs in children with KD. These studies involved a total of 6503 people with KD, of whom 986 had CALs. The pooled concordance index in the validation set was 0.787 (95% CI 0.738-0.835). Conclusions The diagnostic and predictive factors used in the studies we included were primarily derived from common clinical data. The ML models constructed based on these clinical data demonstrated promising effectiveness in differentiating KD from other febrile illnesses and in predicting coronary artery lesions. Therefore, in future research, we can explore the use of ML methods to identify more efficient predictors and develop tools that can be applied on a broader scale for the differentiation of KD and the prediction of CALs.