Accuracy of chronic liver failure consortium (CLIF-C) ACLF score compared with meld, MELD-NA and CTP as a mortality predictor in acute on chronic liver failure patients admitted to tertiary rural care hospital

Abstract

Background Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C) ACLF score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Na, and Child-Pugh (CTP) are established scoring systems for predicting mortality in Acute on Chronic Liver Failure (ACLF) patients. However, their comparative accuracy, especially in rural care settings, still needs to be explored. This study aims to assess and compare the predictive performance of these scoring systems, providing a nuanced understanding of their applicability in a tertiary rural care hospital. Method This prospective observational cohort study will be conducted at Acharya Vinoba Bhave Rural Hospital, following approval from the institutional ethical committee. ACLF patients aged 18 and above, presenting within one week of onset, will be included. Data collection will involve comprehensive assessments, including scoring system calculations, clinical examinations, and relevant investigations. Statistical analyses, encompassing descriptive statistics, comparative analyses, survival analyses, and multivariate models, will elucidate the accuracy and independent predictors of 28-day mortality. Expected Outcome Anticipated outcomes include a comprehensive understanding of the strengths and limitations of the CLIF-C ACLF score, MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP in predicting mortality among ACLF patients in a rural care context. The study aims to identify potential correlations and independent predictors, offering valuable insights for risk stratification. These findings are expected to guide clinicians in optimising prognostic assessments and decision-making, thereby improving the care and outcomes of ACLF patients in rural healthcare settings.