Accuracy of behavioral predictions at zero acquaintance: A social relations analysis.

Abstract

The accuracy of behavioral predictions based on minimal information was assessed using the Social Relations Model (D. A. Kenny & L. Albright, 1987). Eighty women in unacquainted groups of 4 completed round robin trait ratings and predictions about extraversion-related behaviors. Each S then had a 5-min videotaped 1-on-l interaction with each of the other group members. Behaviors corresponding to those predicted were coded from the videotapes. Significant consensus was obtained for ratings of Extraversion and for behavioral predictions. Cross-partner consistency emerged for all coded behaviors. Although predictions of behavior were not accurate at the dyadic level, significant generalized accuracy did emerge. Thus, if a person was consensually predicted to be talkative, for example, that person tended to be talkative across partners. Results are discussed in relation to the accuracy of interpersonal perception and Swann's (1984) theory of pragmatic accuracy. As social psychologists, we have long been amazed by how quickly human perceivers form judgments based on very limited information. We have taken advantage of this proclivity by giving subjects limited stimulus information and then examining the effect of that information on human judgment. This research often demonstrates the inadequacies of snap judgments. Some (e.g., Funder, 1987) have criticized this type of research because of its limited generalizability. Particularly relevant to the issue of generalizability is the accuracy of snap judgments. Many social psychologists believe that snap judgments are based on stereotypes and heuristics and are, therefore, not likely to be very accurate. Although common sense would seem to point to the view that perceptions based on limited information are likely to be quite erroneous, people not only make snap judgments but also use them as a primary basis for guiding future interaction. For example, individuals often base their decisions about who to get to know better and who to avoid in the future on snap judgments. Given that interpersonal perceptions based on minimal information can have dramatic effects on social outcomes, the accuracy of those initial perceptions is a critical question for research in interpersonal perception. Specifically, do initial perceptions provide a reasonable basis for inferring future behavior? The accuracy of snap judgments is the major focus of this article.