Accuracy, Bias, and Dispersion in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: The Case of Cross‐Listed Foreign Firms

Abstract

This paper examines differences in analysts' earnings forecast characteristics for foreign incorporated non‐U.S. firms cross‐listed in the U.S. stock markets relative to a control sample of purely domestic firms. Examining summary earnings forecasts over the calendar years 1984 through 1989, this paper provides evidence that there are statistically significant differences in bias and accuracy between domestic and cross‐listed foreign firms. Consistent with prior research, we find a horizon effect in accuracy; i.e., accuracy improves as we get closer to the actual earnings announcement for both types of firms. However, the differences in accuracy between the cross‐listed and domestic firms persist only in the earlier forecast horizons where analysts' forecasts are less accurate for foreign cross‐listed firms compared with domestic firms. The evidence is also consistent with analysts' exhibiting less optimism with respect to cross‐listed foreign firms compared with the domestic firms. Finally, the paper also documents that there is a greater consensus among analysts for foreign cross‐listed firms than for domestic firms.