Accuracy and Precision of Computer Models to Predict Passage of Crude Protein and Amino Acids to the Duodenum of Lactating Cows

Abstract

To evaluate the ability of several models to accurately and precisely predict the passage of crude protein (CP) and amino acids to the duodenum of lactating cows, we simulated data from six published studies using the 1989 National Research Council equations, the Mepron Dairy Ration Evaluator (version 1.1), the University of Pennsylvania release of the Net Carbohydrate and Protein System (version 2.12p), the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System (version 3), and CPM Dairy (version 1.0). Models overestimated the passage of CP from microbes by an average of 323 g/d, and underestimated the passage of CP from feed by an average of 874 g/d. These two errors were partially canceled when CP from microbes and feed were summed to estimate passage of total CP to the duodenum. Many dietary composition variables appeared to bias the predictions; however, the influence of any one variable was small. The efficiency of modeling was high for most predictions but was variable for predicting passage of specific individual amino acids to the small intestine depending on the model selected. These simulations indicated no obvious advantage for any model over the others tested. The models responded to changes in diets by altering the amount of protein from microbes and feed that reached the duodenum, resulting in improved accuracy of predictions of duodenal CP passage compared with simply assuming a constant value for passage of CP to the duodenum.