Accuracy and bias in estimates of others' knowledge

Abstract

AbstractPerspective‐taking is central to much social interaction, but the processes by which it is accomplished are poorly understood. The current study examines accuracy and bias in one type of perspective‐taking: inferences about what others know. Twenty‐two New York City landmarks were presented in three conditions: Picture Only, Picture‐+ Name and Name Only. Subjects estimated the proportion of short‐ and long‐term New York City residents who could identify each landmark from its picture. They also rated their subjective recognition of the stimuli. Subjects in all three conditions were good at estimating stimulus identifiability, but their estimates were biased in the direction of their own knowledge. Estimates of the difference in identifications by short‐and long‐term residents were relatively inaccurate, probably because the two groups differed less than anticipated. For most but not all subjects, subjective feelings of recognition were significantly correlated with estimates of identifiability. We conclude that perceptions of the distribution of knowledge are socially shared.