Abstract
Application of procedure modeling a physical process in virtual medium jointly mathematical apparatus allows obtaining forecast parameters of the technical condition. Goal of the study is development of predictive assessment of failure risks for machines with a different overhaul life. Accounting of load characteristics for reclamation machine was explained; development of guidelines on formation of info-analytic basis for the unit machine operation was realized. In particular, the period for maintainability can be distinguished, in this case, the reverse nature of the transition seems to be true that reset the previous operation period and return the value of operating life to initial state. For example, the implementation of the return transition according to the values of moral aging is not possible. Further studies are oriented on development of a methodology for monitoring of variation in the technical condition of a unit machine at a hierarchical level, by combination of risk-failure data for individual parts, assemblies, systems, and for entire system of machine. Electronic diagnostic system for collection of data about a current state of the technical system, combined with a computational model of the intensity of change compared to the basic end values, will allow designing predictive models of failure risks.
Highlights
The problem, concerning a collaboration between production structure and research community is an integral part of technical and technological breakthrough that is necessary to improve a social stability in Russia
Based on typical operating conditions and timely high-quality periodic service actions to maintain an operable state, overhaul life is represented by the equation (1): TL
Coordinating the frequency of service and repair works with the theory of Markov processes, the assumption of the time interval that is typical for the transition of an element from one state to another one was made
Summary
The problem, concerning a collaboration between production structure and research community is an integral part of technical and technological breakthrough that is necessary to improve a social stability in Russia. This necessity is noted in the almost all strategic development programs. Strategic development of production process without upgrading and modernization of machines and technologies is slow down or, in many cases, stopped. Scientific review demonstrates a significant federal budget costs (up to 10 trillion rubles) for the program realization. In 2018, about 10 trillion rubles were allocated to agricultural industries from the budget financing. Goal of research is to study predictive assessment of failure risks for machines with a different overhaul life as well as with a long period of operational capability (10 years at least)
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