Abstract
In the long-term development of the electric power system, system operators should consider the socio-economic balance between grid investment costs and security of supply, including the risk of power supply interruptions. Cost-benefit analyses conducted for this purpose are associated with many uncertainties but have traditionally focused on the expected value of the net socio-economic benefits of risk-reducing measures. This article focuses on the large uncertainties that are associated with the possible occurrence of high-impact low-probability interruption events (HILP events). The objective is to quantify and visualize the implications of uncertainties due to HILP events in the context of power system development. More specifically, this article describes a methodology accounting for uncertainties in socio-economic cost-benefit analysis of measures for reducing the risk of HILP events. The methodology accounts for the contributions of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and comprises a hybrid probabilistic-possibilistic uncertainty analysis method. Applying the methodology to a real case involving a grid investment decision, it is demonstrated how it provides additional insight compared to conventional cost-benefit analyses considering expected values where uncertainties are not accounted for explicitly. It is furthermore discussed how these results can help to better inform grid development decisions.
Highlights
For an electric power transmission system, system development in volves activities carried out by the transmission system operator (TSO) to ensure safe system operation, provide a high level of security of supply and contribute to the socio-economic efficiency of the system [1]
To simplify the presentation of the methodology we will consider the choice between two generic power system devel opment alternatives: The costs and benefits of risk-reducing measures considered to reduce the risk of high-impact low-probability (HILP) events are compared to a reference alternative without such measures
Since the cost-benefit analysis in the previous sections resulted in a negative best-guess expected value E(ΔTC(x0)) for the net benefits, the conclusion would be that the TSO should not invest in an additional transmission line to reduce the risk of HILP events
Summary
For an electric power transmission system, system development in volves activities carried out by the transmission system operator (TSO) to ensure safe system operation, provide a high level of security of supply and contribute to the socio-economic efficiency of the system [1]. It is a part of long-term power system planning, considering planning horizons up to several decades into the future, and involves choices between different grid investment alternatives. Statnett has implemented new guidelines for assessing security of supply in power system planning According to these guidelines, the TSO shall 1)
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